A new research by Standard Chartered has projected that global exports will almost double from $17.4tn to $29.7tn over the next decade, with Nigeria topping the volume for Africa.
At 9.7 per cent yearly growth rate, the report sees Nigeria’s export volume peaking at $112 billion by 2030.
The report reveals 13 markets that will drive much of this growth, identifies major corridors, and five trends shaping the future of global trade.
Commissioned by Standard Chartered and prepared by PwC Singapore, the trade report is based on an analysis of historical trade data and projections until 2030, as well as insights from a survey of more than 500 C-suite and senior leaders in global companies.
The report noted that global trade will be reshaped by five key trends: the wider adoption of sustainable and fair-trade practices; a push for more inclusive participation; greater risk diversification; more digitisation and a rebalancing towards high-growth emerging markets.
Almost 90 per cent of the corporate leaders surveyed agreed that these trends would shape the future of trade and would form part of their five to 10-year cross-border expansion strategies.
“Globalisation will drive the next decade of growth. Despite the recent push towards onshoring, growth corridors of the future will not just be intraregional – they will be global spanning Africa-East Asia; ASEAN-South Asia; East Asia-Europe; East Asia- Middle East; East Asia-Europe; South Asia-US.
“Asia, Africa and the Middle East will see a ramp-up in investment flows, with 82 per cent of respondents saying they are considering new production locations in these regions in the next five to 10 years, supporting the trend towards rebalancing to emerging markets and greater risk diversification of supply chains”, the report added.
The research found a significant trend towards the adoption of sustainable trade practices in response to climate concerns and a rising wave of conscious consumerism.
However, while almost 90 per cent of corporate leaders acknowledged the need to implement these practices across their supply chains, only 34 per cent ranked it as a ‘top three’ priority for execution over the next five to 10 years.
Executive Director, Corporate Commercial and Institutional Banking, Standard Chartered Nigeria, Korede Adenowo, said: “The predicted doubling of global trade offers strong evidence that globalisation is still working, despite recent dislocation. In addition to the growth of intra-regional trade pathways, the corridors of the future will still cut across continents.
“Against this backdrop, we continue to focus on making globalisation work for more markets and businesses, ranging from micro to multinational, and drive a more sustainable and inclusive model for global trade. This includes growing our range of sustainable finance solutions to help our corporate clients implement sustainable and fair-trade practices across their supply chains.”